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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–3 on winners
spread MAE 12.2
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan State
@
Northwestern
|
+6.2 | 156.0 | 70% | 65–79 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
San Francisco
|
+4.3 | 141.9 | 64% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Minnesota
|
-4.0 | 154.1 | 32% | 82–90 | ✗ |
Washington
@
Colorado
|
+13.6 | 129.6 | 86% | 69–92 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Clemson
|
+23.2 | 128.1 | 90% | 51–66 | ✓ |
VMI
@
George Mason
|
+3.3 | 143.9 | 64% | 66–68 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Campbell
|
+2.5 | 143.1 | 58% | 78–59 | ✗ |
Wofford
@
Texas A&M
|
+4.8 | 137.8 | 67% | 52–70 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Kansas State
|
+4.7 | 143.5 | 68% | 46–70 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Rice
|
+12.7 | 142.6 | 87% | 62–73 | ✓ |
Northern Arizona
@
Texas State
|
+11.5 | 132.3 | 85% | 65–70 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
Massachusetts
|
+9.9 | 162.7 | 80% | 93–88 | ✗ |
South Carolina State
@
Furman
|
+23.6 | 143.3 | 91% | 52–118 | ✓ |
Vermont
@
UMass Lowell
|
— | — | — | 65–73 | — |
Saint Joseph's
@
Tennessee
|
+24.3 | 149.9 | 91% | 66–102 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.