Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -500 NAU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -15.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -11.5 (-6.5) | 132.3 (+2.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -10.0 (-5.0) | 127.0 (+8.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -11.0 (-6.0) | 128.8 (+6.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -11.8 (-6.8) | 131.4 (+3.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#230) | -20.0 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#173) | -2.78 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#204) | -3.92 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#180) | 0.287 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 33.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 24.7% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 37.8% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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