Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | NU +260 MSU -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | NU -9.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -6.2 (+7.8) | 156.0 (-12.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -4.6 (+9.4) | 155.9 (-11.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -4.8 (+9.2) | 157.4 (-13.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -5.0 (+9.0) | 155.3 (-11.3) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MSU 76 – 66 NU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MSU 78 – 68 NU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MSU 53 – 49 NU |
| Jan 8, 2024 | NU 88 – 74 MSU |
| Dec 5, 2022 | NU 70 – 63 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 6-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#44) | 4.3 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#230) | 2.67 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#219) | 4.14 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#278) | 0.536 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 46.0 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.06 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.1% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 81.2% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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