Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | MINN +125 SLU -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +8 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | SLU -9.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -4.0 (+12.0) | 154.1 (+17.9) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -5.6 (+13.6) | 150.9 (+21.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -2.9 (+10.9) | 155.8 (+16.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -3.2 (+11.2) | 151.8 (+20.2) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-15 | 14-7 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-4 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 0-10 | 1-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#91) | 19.0 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#47) | 2.80 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#57) | 4.18 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#145) | 0.644 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | SLU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 52.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 44.6% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 59.5% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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