Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | GMU -400 VMI +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -1.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.3 (-1.3) | 143.9 (-9.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -3.7 (-1.7) | 143.7 (-9.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -2.1 (-0.1) | 143.0 (-9.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -1.9 (+0.1) | 145.0 (-11.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Home | 7-3 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-4 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#192) | 0.7 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#155) | -1.01 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#199) | -1.51 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#119) | 0.412 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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