Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | KSU -900 JAX +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +24 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -6.7 (+17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -4.7 (+19.3) | 143.5 (-27.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -4.5 (+19.5) | 139.4 (-23.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -6.0 (+18.0) | 141.9 (-25.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -5.1 (+18.9) | 143.5 (-27.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 11-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-9 |
| Home | 6-12 | 7-5 |
| Away | 2-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.6 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#235) | -6.9 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#216) | -0.73 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#233) | -1.44 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#178) | 0.493 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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