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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–14 on winners spread MAE 9.8 50 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Gardner-Webb @ Florida State	+12.3	146.6	85%	59–72	✓
Morgan State @ Delaware	+0.2	137.9	47%	65–59	✗
Sacred Heart @ Wagner	+2.0	135.6	59%	46–74	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Washington State	+8.9	130.7	81%	62–90	✓
Belmont @ Evansville	-4.9	144.2	27%	72–63	✓
Sam Houston @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+2.3	144.7	64%	69–66	✗
Hampton @ Charleston Southern	-0.4	132.5	45%	67–55	✓
Charleston @ Georgia State	+13.0	158.0	86%	55–72	✓
Southern Illinois @ Butler	+0.6	140.6	46%	76–73	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Baylor	+25.2	156.7	91%	42–99	✓
Longwood @ Virginia Tech	+14.3	142.3	87%	58–84	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Mississippi State	+24.5	153.1	91%	48–87	✓
Tulsa @ Memphis	+10.3	140.4	83%	56–49	✗
Little Rock @ Missouri State	+8.7	148.5	77%	77–85	✓
Northwestern State @ Gonzaga	+24.7	161.6	91%	57–95	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Stanford	+16.3	138.1	88%	50–63	✓
Texas Southern @ BYU	+12.3	140.3	85%	71–87	✓
Murray State @ Austin Peay	-1.4	143.1	43%	70–74	✗
San José State @ Utah State	+10.9	146.4	87%	62–107	✓
New Mexico @ Boise State	+9.0	137.4	79%	53–77	✓
Maine @ Boston College	+4.7	142.5	71%	62–78	✓
Alcorn State @ Liberty	+21.0	140.2	91%	65–108	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Indiana State	+10.2	140.5	83%	66–72	✓
William & Mary @ Virginia	+18.7	134.0	89%	40–76	✓
Northern Illinois @ Toledo	+20.0	142.2	91%	55–78	✓
Charlotte @ George Washington	-0.1	137.4	45%	66–65	✓
Northern Arizona @ Denver	+6.4	142.1	73%	68–65	✗
Hofstra @ Richmond	+11.6	148.8	84%	76–71	✗
Mercer @ Kennesaw State	-8.3	133.6	20%	81–71	✓
Ball State @ Western Michigan	+0.4	133.1	50%	76–68	✗
Ohio @ Akron	-8.1	148.9	26%	70–90	✗
Niagara @ UAlbany	+4.0	129.2	65%	70–65	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fairfield	+2.6	143.7	55%	69–65	✗
Vermont @ UMass Lowell	+4.1	140.1	70%	62–53	✗
Montana State @ Portland	+0.4	154.6	50%	59–62	✓
App State @ Auburn	+12.3	138.7	85%	53–67	✓
Presbyterian @ The Citadel	+12.7	145.7	87%	82–94	✓
Chattanooga @ Tennessee State	-8.3	139.5	20%	66–63	✓
Tulane @ East Carolina	+7.7	133.6	79%	58–68	✓
Colorado State @ Santa Clara	-1.7	122.2	48%	70–57	✓
James Madison @ VCU	+19.5	143.0	91%	81–82	✓
Cincinnati @ UCF	+6.3	139.1	75%	70–75	✓
Sacred Heart @ Wagner	+2.8	133.4	63%	86–85	✗
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado	+4.2	130.8	66%	64–69	✓
Seattle U @ California	+8.4	127.0	77%	65–70	✓
Abilene Christian @ Arkansas	+11.7	136.9	82%	72–85	✓
UT Martin @ Ole Miss	+20.4	137.5	91%	43–90	✓
UNC Greensboro @ North Carolina A&T	-4.4	141.5	30%	86–65	✓
UNC Asheville @ Marshall	+12.7	151.1	85%	67–88	✓
Hampton @ Charleston Southern	+0.3	130.0	46%	70–68	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.