Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +13 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -3.7 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 110.3 (+16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -1.7 (-11.3) | 122.2 (+4.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -1.2 (-11.8) | 125.9 (+1.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -3.3 (-9.7) | 127.3 (-0.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -1.7 (-11.3) | 123.6 (+3.4) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-8 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 4-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-3 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-3 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#164) | 3.1 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#63) | -0.25 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#89) | -0.52 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#96) | 0.450 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 23.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.9% | 41.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 9.7% |
Game Analysis
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