Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | UCF +130 CIN -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -8.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -6.3 (-1.3) | 139.1 (+5.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -4.0 (+1.0) | 137.8 (+7.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -4.4 (+0.6) | 140.2 (+4.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -6.3 (-1.3) | 139.4 (+5.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UCF 66 – 65 CIN |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CIN 92 – 72 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCF 73 – 72 CIN |
| Apr 3, 2025 | UCF 88 – 80 CIN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CIN 93 – 83 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-6 |
| Home | 6-3 | 5-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#72) | 2.9 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#11) | -0.46 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.68 (#9) | -0.64 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.812 (#2) | 0.548 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 24.8% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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