Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -20.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | VCU -3500 JMU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +1 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -23.7 (-22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -19.5 (-18.5) | 143.0 (+20.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -16.2 (-15.2) | 141.7 (+21.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -21.6 (-20.6) | 143.1 (+19.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -22.2 (-21.2) | 141.5 (+21.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-7 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 8-2 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-3 | 3-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#17) | -5.3 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#30) | -1.52 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.08 (#23) | -2.45 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#30) | 0.435 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 34.8% |
Game Analysis
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