If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–10 on winners spread MAE 9.0 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Nebraska @ Wisconsin +14.3 139.3 88% 53–67 ✓
Bradley @ Missouri +14.3 140.3 88% 53–54 ✓
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma +1.4 136.4 58% 69–67 ✗
North Carolina @ NC State +6.2 142.7 75% 76–79 ✓
North Dakota @ Drake +18.5 141.1 90% 55–88 ✓
Wichita State @ South Florida +2.1 137.8 60% 82–77 ✗
Montana @ Arizona +11.6 135.3 83% 64–70 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Davidson +9.3 132.6 78% 65–85 ✓
High Point @ Eastern Kentucky +3.1 154.4 61% 67–86 ✓
Louisville @ Pittsburgh +3.2 137.6 65% 64–54 ✗
La Salle @ Maryland +16.2 133.9 88% 71–84 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Florida Gulf Coast +3.1 140.0 61% 60–73 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Western Kentucky +12.8 144.2 88% 68–88 ✓
Lamar @ UTSA +2.5 139.9 59% 66–88 ✓
Northeastern @ Georgia +10.6 141.8 83% 58–76 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Alabama +10.9 135.2 83% 69–85 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UL Monroe -4.6 136.7 29% 68–57 ✓
Temple @ Houston +13.3 136.8 87% 50–76 ✓
Northwestern State @ Gonzaga +25.1 165.0 91% 78–95 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas +3.5 139.8 67% 65–79 ✓
Purdue @ Iowa +11.7 157.5 85% 55–70 ✓
Portland State @ Oregon State +6.8 145.0 74% 62–67 ✓
San Diego State @ Saint Mary's +0.4 130.2 53% 74–49 ✗
North Dakota State @ TCU +8.7 131.9 77% 82–89 ✓
Colorado @ Grand Canyon -10.7 134.5 17% 74–64 ✓
Bellarmine @ Notre Dame +4.6 144.7 68% 70–81 ✓
Delaware State @ UNC Wilmington +21.8 156.8 91% 63–87 ✓
Saint Peter's @ St. Francis Brooklyn -0.3 143.9 45% 70–64 ✓
NJIT @ Rider +1.3 137.5 52% 81–66 ✗
Xavier @ Creighton +4.0 158.8 66% 61–66 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Grambling +5.7 133.7 69% 77–70 ✗
Towson @ George Mason +8.0 141.3 78% 65–70 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado +4.9 131.4 68% 71–56 ✗
Rutgers @ Ohio State +0.9 143.1 50% 68–80 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Tennessee +25.4 139.5 91% 60–80 ✓
Northwestern State @ Washington State +18.2 140.2 90% 52–62 ✓
Georgetown @ Seton Hall +11.9 150.5 87% 67–78 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Pepperdine +5.1 143.7 71% 79–51 ✗
Providence @ Butler -1.8 144.4 42% 64–70 ✗
Illinois @ Penn State +0.6 153.2 56% 98–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.