Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR +120 PROV -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +6 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -2.9 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -1.8 (+7.8) | 144.4 (-10.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -1.8 (+7.8) | 138.6 (-4.6) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -3.1 (+9.1) | 142.9 (-8.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -2.2 (+8.2) | 145.5 (-11.5) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BTLR |
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BTLR |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BTLR 113 – 110 PROV |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BTLR 75 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BTLR 82 – 81 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 8-3 |
| Away | 1-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#186) | 5.7 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#217) | 2.11 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#193) | 2.57 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#157) | 0.582 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.4% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 84.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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