Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | TCU -800 NDSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +7 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -9.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.9 (+52.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -8.7 (-1.7) | 131.9 (+39.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -7.8 (-0.8) | 130.8 (+40.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -9.2 (-2.2) | 130.2 (+40.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -9.2 (-2.2) | 130.8 (+40.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-14 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 6-7 | 6-2 |
| Away | 3-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#96) | -0.9 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#49) | -1.04 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#72) | -1.67 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#78) | 0.453 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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