Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -650 BRAD +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +1 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -17.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -14.3 (-13.3) | 140.3 (-33.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -12.3 (-11.3) | 138.7 (-31.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -12.2 (-11.2) | 139.5 (-32.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -14.2 (-13.2) | 138.5 (-31.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-10 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#10) | 2.4 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.94 (#4) | 0.84 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.06 (#4) | 0.30 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.712 (#8) | 0.527 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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