Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ND -4000 BELL +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ND -5.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -3.8 (+7.2) | 137.7 (+13.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -4.6 (+6.4) | 144.7 (+6.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -4.0 (+7.0) | 144.9 (+6.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -4.1 (+6.9) | 140.8 (+10.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | ND 86 – 79 BELL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-15 | 14-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-3 |
| Home | 6-5 | 6-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#188) | -3.0 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#218) | -0.28 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#206) | -0.50 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#191) | 0.503 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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