Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ND -50000 BELL +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +7 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | ND -30.4 (-23.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -25.4 (-18.4) | 145.5 (+19.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -24.1 (-17.1) | 151.8 (+13.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -30.7 (-23.7) | 149.7 (+15.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -32.5 (-25.5) | 151.2 (+13.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2020 | ND 81 – 70 BELL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 83.3 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#50) | -13.8 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#75) | -2.03 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#52) | -2.96 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#81) | 0.497 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 26.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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