Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | GCU +500 COLO -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | COLO -16.7 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -10.7 (+0.7) | 134.5 (+3.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -10.5 (+0.5) | 132.5 (+5.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -12.1 (+2.1) | 136.1 (+1.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -11.9 (+1.9) | 135.9 (+2.1) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 9-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-1 |
| Away | 5-1 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 63.8 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#118) | 19.5 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#190) | 1.68 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#161) | 2.33 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#222) | 0.583 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 41.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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