Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -1300 MONT +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +6 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -10.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -11.6 (-5.6) | 135.3 (-1.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -10.5 (-4.5) | 133.4 (+0.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -12.0 (-6.0) | 136.5 (-2.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -10.8 (-4.8) | 135.1 (-1.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-9 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#42) | 4.5 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#72) | -0.07 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#69) | 0.86 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#98) | 0.539 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 39.3% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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