Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -1600 ETSU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +16 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -12.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -10.9 (+5.1) | 135.2 (+18.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -9.7 (+6.3) | 137.8 (+16.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -11.3 (+4.7) | 140.8 (+13.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -10.5 (+5.5) | 134.2 (+19.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-7 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#77) | -1.2 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#87) | -0.77 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#78) | -0.14 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#74) | 0.428 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 24.3% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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