Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | DAV -330 VAN +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +20 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -10.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -9.3 (+10.7) | 132.6 (+17.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -5.3 (+14.7) | 131.3 (+18.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -8.9 (+11.1) | 129.3 (+20.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -9.9 (+10.1) | 132.1 (+17.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 7-4 | 3-13 |
| Home | 7-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-2 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#85) | -0.4 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#113) | -0.36 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#94) | -0.88 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#128) | 0.433 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 11.1% |
Game Analysis
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