Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU +115 UNC -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +3 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -8.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -6.2 (-3.2) | 142.7 (+12.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -4.5 (-1.5) | 141.9 (+13.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -4.9 (-1.9) | 144.3 (+10.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -6.1 (-3.1) | 142.8 (+12.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 58 UNC |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNC 97 – 73 NCSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNC 63 – 61 NCSU |
| Mar 17, 2024 | NCSU 84 – 76 UNC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNC 79 – 70 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 10-6 |
| Home | 7-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#19) | 9.4 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#90) | 1.70 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#91) | 2.96 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#129) | 0.566 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 45.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 41.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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