Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | PSU +165 ILL -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +17 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -3.3 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (+23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -0.6 (-17.6) | 153.2 (+25.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -0.7 (-16.3) | 154.0 (+25.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -0.1 (-17.1) | 153.6 (+25.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -0.9 (-16.1) | 155.8 (+23.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | ILL 73 – 65 PSU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ILL 91 – 52 PSU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | PSU 90 – 89 ILL |
| Mar 9, 2023 | PSU 79 – 76 ILL |
| Feb 15, 2023 | PSU 93 – 81 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 16-4 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#28) | 19.9 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#39) | 2.35 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.22 (#18) | 4.16 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.661 (#13) | 0.628 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 53.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 45.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 43.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 60.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 78.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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