Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | USF -120 WICH +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WICH +5 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -0.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -2.1 (-7.1) | 137.8 (+21.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -1.3 (-6.3) | 134.5 (+24.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -0.8 (-5.8) | 138.9 (+20.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -1.8 (-6.8) | 138.5 (+20.5) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | USF 70 – 55 WICH |
| Feb 12, 2026 | USF 66 – 58 WICH |
| Jan 18, 2026 | WICH 86 – 85 USF |
| Mar 13, 2025 | WICH 73 – 68 USF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | WICH 75 – 70 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | WICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-13 | 16-6 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 11-2 |
| Home | 4-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#161) | 3.2 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#103) | 0.73 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#130) | 1.84 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#92) | 0.526 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | WICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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