Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -320 PUR +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +15 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -14.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.7 (-42.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -11.7 (+3.3) | 157.5 (-32.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -9.3 (+5.7) | 149.2 (-24.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -12.8 (+2.2) | 155.5 (-30.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -10.5 (+4.5) | 159.4 (-34.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PUR 78 – 57 IOWA |
| Jan 14, 2026 | PUR 79 – 72 IOWA |
| Feb 5, 2025 | PUR 90 – 81 IOWA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | PUR 84 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 5, 2023 | PUR 87 – 68 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 18-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.7 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#6) | 8.4 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#41) | 1.60 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#25) | 2.43 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#96) | 0.604 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 42.1 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.35 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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