Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | EKU -280 HPU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +19 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | EKU -2.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -3.1 (+15.9) | 154.4 (-1.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -4.5 (+14.5) | 152.7 (+0.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -2.4 (+16.6) | 152.5 (+0.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -2.5 (+16.5) | 153.6 (-0.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-7 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-11 |
| Home | 10-2 | 5-5 |
| Away | 9-4 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#165) | 1.1 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#219) | -0.78 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#247) | -0.52 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#218) | 0.428 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 24.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.4% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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