Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | MD -1800 LAS +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +13 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MD -18.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (+25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -16.2 (-3.2) | 133.9 (+21.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -14.0 (-1.0) | 132.8 (+22.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -16.8 (-3.8) | 132.7 (+22.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -16.6 (-3.6) | 133.9 (+21.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#31) | -1.8 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#32) | -0.44 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.91 (#28) | -0.15 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#10) | 0.475 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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