Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -5.0 Push |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -220 TOW +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -8.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -8.0 (-3.0) | 141.3 (-6.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -7.3 (-2.3) | 139.5 (-4.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -7.8 (-2.8) | 139.8 (-4.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -8.3 (-3.3) | 140.9 (-5.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 4-14 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 3-9 |
| Home | 7-3 | 4-4 |
| Away | 3-4 | 0-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#189) | -6.0 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#135) | -2.09 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#181) | -2.72 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#99) | 0.407 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 14.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.