Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +24 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -29.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -20.5 (+3.5) | 155.5 (-5.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -21.8 (+2.2) | 156.8 (-6.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -25.0 (-1.0) | 153.8 (-3.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -26.8 (-2.8) | 152.6 (-2.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2021 | UNCW 67 – 63 DSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#112) | -21.7 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#71) | -1.80 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#79) | -3.06 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#40) | 0.389 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 35.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 25.8% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 62.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 57.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 36.6% |
Game Analysis
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