Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | PITT +230 LOU -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +10 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -4.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -3.2 (-13.2) | 137.6 (-19.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -3.4 (-13.4) | 131.4 (-13.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -1.0 (-11.0) | 136.4 (-18.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -2.7 (-12.7) | 135.5 (-17.5) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | LOU 100 – 59 PITT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LOU 79 – 68 PITT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LOU 82 – 78 PITT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PITT 86 – 59 LOU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PITT 83 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-12 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 8-5 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-2 |
| Away | 3-5 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#79) | 6.0 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#78) | 2.04 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#114) | 2.85 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#71) | 0.636 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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