Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -14.0 Push |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | AUB -1300 APP +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +14 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -12.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -10.9 (+3.1) | 141.0 (-21.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -12.3 (+1.7) | 138.7 (-18.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -12.5 (+1.5) | 137.8 (-17.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -11.8 (+2.2) | 138.7 (-18.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2023 | APP 69 – 64 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#85) | -1.6 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#26) | 0.55 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.90 (#27) | 1.70 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#45) | 0.530 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 25.1% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 12.8% |
Game Analysis
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