They put a hot wire to my head / Because of the things I did and said "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
Neville Arena · December 22, 2020
Betting Lines
Spread AUB -14.0 Push
O/U 140.0 Under
Money AUB -1300 / APP +800
Model Predictions
Spread Total AUB win
Actual AUB +14 120 Won
Massey AUB -12.2 (+1.8) — —
Massey Totals — 136.2 (-16.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 94% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 96% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ AUB -10.9 (+3.1) 141.0 (-21.0) 83% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML AUB -12.3 (+1.7) 138.7 (-18.7) 85% ✓
Baseline ML AUB -12.5 (+1.5) 137.8 (-17.8) 82% ✓
Baseline Plus ML AUB -11.8 (+2.2) 138.7 (-18.7) 86% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 3, 2023 APP 69 – 64 AUB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AUB APP
Neutral 2-1 4-1
Last 5 4-1 2-2
Massey 6.1 (#85) -1.6 (#185)
Bradley-Terry 2.54 (#26) 0.55 (#126)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.90 (#27) 1.70 (#94)
RPI 0.612 (#45) 0.530 (#125)
Shooting & Four Factors AUB APP
FG% 44.6% 40.7%
3PT% 31.6% 30.6%
REB / G 40.4 37.0
OREB / G 13.6 9.5
AST / TO 0.87 0.61
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.5% 47.7%
TOV% 23.1% 25.1%
ORB% 36.1% 27.5%
FT Rate 25.4% 23.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.1% 47.1%
Opp TOV% 21.5% 16.0%
DRB% 71.2% 72.4%
Opp FT Rate 19.2% 12.8%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.