Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | APP +250 AUB -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -0.4 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -1.3 (+6.3) | 143.3 (-10.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.3 (+2.7) | 141.1 (-8.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.2 (+2.8) | 139.9 (-6.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.1 (+2.9) | 145.5 (-12.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2020 | AUB 67 – 53 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-0 | 15-1 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#85) | 12.1 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#77) | 2.06 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#78) | 3.22 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#93) | 0.602 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 40.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.