I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
Holmes Convocation Center · December 3, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread AUB -7.5 Home covered
O/U 147.0 Under
Money APP +250 / AUB -320
Model Predictions
Spread Total APP win
Actual APP +5 133 Won
Massey AUB -0.4 (+5.4) — —
Massey Totals — 144.8 (-11.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 63% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 51% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ AUB -1.3 (+6.3) 143.3 (-10.3) 45% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML APP -2.3 (+2.7) 141.1 (-8.1) 54% ✓
Baseline ML APP -2.2 (+2.8) 139.9 (-6.9) 53% ✓
Baseline Plus ML APP -2.1 (+2.9) 145.5 (-12.5) 64% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 22, 2020 AUB 67 – 53 APP

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings APP AUB
Overall 27-7 27-8
Conference 16-2 13-5
Home 15-0 15-1
Away 8-5 5-5
Neutral 4-2 7-2
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 77.1 83.1
Avg Pts Against 68.7 68.3
Massey 5.7 (#85) 12.1 (#26)
Bradley-Terry 1.37 (#77) 2.06 (#44)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.83 (#78) 3.22 (#37)
RPI 0.565 (#93) 0.602 (#50)
Shooting & Four Factors APP AUB
FG% 46.9% 45.6%
3PT% 32.1% 34.0%
REB / G 40.7 41.3
OREB / G 10.0 13.2
AST / TO 1.28 1.54
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.1% 52.1%
TOV% 16.2% 17.8%
ORB% 28.7% 36.7%
FT Rate 19.4% 31.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.3% 40.5%
Opp TOV% 14.2% 20.4%
DRB% 75.4% 69.8%
Opp FT Rate 19.2% 29.9%

Game Analysis

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