Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -1100 UNCA +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +21 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -12.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -12.7 (+8.3) | 151.1 (+3.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -9.6 (+11.4) | 150.1 (+4.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -12.0 (+9.0) | 153.4 (+1.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -12.1 (+8.9) | 152.4 (+2.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#58) | 0.1 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#55) | -0.31 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#44) | 0.31 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#117) | 0.468 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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