Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -9.0 Push |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UML +360 UVM -475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +9 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -5.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-25.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -4.1 (-13.1) | 140.1 (-25.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -5.0 (-14.0) | 138.5 (-23.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UML -5.0 (-14.0) | 139.0 (-24.0) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UVM 66 – 64 UML |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UVM 77 – 68 UML |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UVM 85 – 61 UML |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UVM 67 – 63 UML |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UVM 66 – 61 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 10-5 |
| Conference | 7-8 | 10-4 |
| Home | 3-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 63.4 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#186) | -2.6 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#174) | -1.29 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#168) | -2.01 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#146) | 0.281 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 59.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 86.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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