Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -1100 NIU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +23 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -28.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -20.0 (+3.0) | 142.2 (-9.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -18.5 (+4.5) | 140.9 (-7.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -23.0 (-0.0) | 140.6 (-7.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -23.4 (-0.4) | 143.3 (-10.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TOL 79 – 69 NIU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | TOL 75 – 61 NIU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TOL 89 – 85 NIU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | NIU 75 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | TOL 89 – 73 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 3-16 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 2-12 |
| Home | 12-1 | 2-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#80) | -17.8 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#61) | -3.13 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#35) | -4.57 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#78) | 0.371 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 23.9% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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