Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -24.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +26 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | VT -15.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -14.3 (+11.7) | 142.3 (-0.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -12.3 (+13.7) | 135.4 (+6.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -15.0 (+11.0) | 140.1 (+1.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -15.2 (+10.8) | 142.4 (-0.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-7 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 9-4 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-3 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#50) | -2.1 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#21) | -2.35 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.01 (#24) | -3.10 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#34) | 0.359 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 36.6% |
Game Analysis
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