Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | TNST +170 UTC -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +3 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -11.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -6.9 (+3.9) | 139.6 (-10.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -8.3 (+5.3) | 139.5 (-10.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -8.8 (+5.8) | 139.7 (-10.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -10.1 (+7.1) | 141.8 (-12.8) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2025 | TNST 70 – 64 UTC |
| Nov 26, 2024 | UTC 85 – 78 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-19 | 18-8 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 9-7 |
| Home | 4-8 | 9-3 |
| Away | 0-10 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#288) | 6.0 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#282) | 3.55 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#288) | 5.12 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#201) | 0.628 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 21.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 10.8% |
Game Analysis
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