Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -650 TNST +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +7 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -11.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -9.8 (-2.8) | 148.3 (+14.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -8.6 (-1.6) | 148.2 (+14.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -9.2 (-2.2) | 148.8 (+14.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -8.4 (-1.4) | 149.0 (+14.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2025 | TNST 70 – 64 UTC |
| Dec 22, 2020 | UTC 66 – 63 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 12-5 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#211) | -7.7 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#106) | -2.40 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#102) | -3.94 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#121) | 0.360 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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