Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -700 COFC +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +17 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -17.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.1 (-43.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -13.0 (+4.0) | 158.0 (-31.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -12.3 (+4.7) | 150.7 (-23.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -13.7 (+3.3) | 158.9 (-31.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -14.4 (+2.6) | 157.3 (-30.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#76) | -6.5 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#15) | -2.41 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.65 (#13) | -3.55 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.729 (#8) | 0.384 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 61.0% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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