Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -21.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +13 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -11.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -12.3 (+0.7) | 146.6 (-15.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -10.0 (+3.0) | 142.6 (-11.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -13.5 (-0.5) | 146.0 (-15.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -13.2 (-0.2) | 146.5 (-15.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-4 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#61) | 0.7 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#35) | -0.92 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#32) | -0.92 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#36) | 0.451 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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