Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR -440 SIU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -1.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -0.6 (-3.6) | 140.6 (+8.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.5 (-2.5) | 138.9 (+10.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -0.1 (-3.1) | 139.4 (+9.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -0.2 (-3.2) | 141.3 (+7.7) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 12-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#173) | 4.8 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#177) | 1.53 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#160) | 1.92 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#171) | 0.572 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 43.6% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 4.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 15.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 34.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.1% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 83.0% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 12.4% |
Game Analysis
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