Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | STAN -1600 CSUB +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +13 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -18.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -16.3 (-3.3) | 138.1 (-25.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -12.7 (+0.3) | 133.7 (-20.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -16.8 (-3.8) | 136.8 (-23.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -18.0 (-5.0) | 137.8 (-24.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 15-11 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 5-4 | 9-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#44) | -4.3 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#62) | -0.37 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#58) | -0.52 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#49) | 0.490 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 19.4% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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