Betting Lines
| Spread | DEL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | DEL -280 MORG +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +6 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | MORG -2.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEL -0.2 (-6.2) | 137.9 (-13.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -0.1 (-5.9) | 133.6 (-9.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEL -0.3 (-6.3) | 134.0 (-10.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -0.2 (-5.8) | 137.3 (-13.3) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEL | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#239) | 2.5 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#244) | 0.48 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#247) | 1.07 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#282) | 0.469 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEL | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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