Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -4500 W&M +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +36 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -20.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -18.7 (+17.3) | 134.0 (-18.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -16.6 (+19.4) | 130.3 (-14.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -21.7 (+14.3) | 131.9 (-15.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -18.9 (+17.1) | 135.4 (-19.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 7-10 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 4-6 |
| Home | 10-1 | 1-3 |
| Away | 6-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.2 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#21) | -2.7 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#123) | -0.93 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#81) | -1.73 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#123) | 0.387 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 80.1% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.8% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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