Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -43.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +57 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -44.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -25.2 (+31.8) | 156.7 (-15.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -24.9 (+32.1) | 155.6 (-14.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -36.4 (+20.6) | 154.5 (-13.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -36.6 (+20.4) | 155.9 (-14.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2021 | BAY 99 – 54 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-2 | 4-21 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 3-12 |
| Home | 11-0 | 2-3 |
| Away | 7-1 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 23.9 (#1) | -16.5 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#8) | -1.96 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.85 (#4) | -3.63 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.686 (#11) | 0.443 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.1% | 35.1% |
| 3PT% | 46.8% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.1% | 39.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 44.1% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.8% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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