Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | INST -1000 SEMO +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | INST -12.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -10.2 (-4.2) | 140.5 (-2.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -8.4 (-2.4) | 138.0 (-0.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -9.3 (-3.3) | 140.0 (-2.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -10.6 (-4.6) | 140.6 (-2.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#134) | -6.4 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#134) | -2.07 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#121) | -3.38 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#74) | 0.377 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 84.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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