Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | DEN -160 NAU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +3 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -9.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -6.4 (-9.4) | 142.1 (-9.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -5.3 (-8.3) | 136.5 (-3.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -4.8 (-7.8) | 139.9 (-6.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -7.0 (-10.0) | 143.7 (-10.7) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-19 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 1-13 | 4-10 |
| Home | 2-10 | 1-7 |
| Away | 0-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#313) | -18.1 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.44 (#326) | -2.97 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.01 (#326) | -4.16 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.324 (#316) | 0.307 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 25.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 25.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 19.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 66.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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