Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | WMU +170 BALL -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +8 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | WMU -0.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WMU -0.4 (-8.4) | 133.1 (+10.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -0.2 (-7.8) | 133.3 (+10.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WMU -0.2 (-8.2) | 133.6 (+10.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WMU -0.8 (-8.8) | 133.9 (+10.1) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | BALL 74 – 71 WMU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WMU 74 – 71 BALL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | WMU 78 – 76 BALL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BALL 77 – 67 WMU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | WMU 78 – 68 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-16 | 10-13 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 8-9 |
| Home | 2-9 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#254) | -1.0 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#292) | 0.04 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#265) | 0.29 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.330 (#312) | 0.519 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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