Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -19.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | USU -3500 SJSU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +45 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | USU -14.4 (+30.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -10.9 (+34.1) | 146.4 (+22.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -11.2 (+33.8) | 147.1 (+21.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -13.2 (+31.8) | 148.9 (+20.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -13.1 (+31.9) | 145.5 (+23.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USU 96 – 78 SJSU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USU 105 – 57 SJSU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | USU 85 – 78 SJSU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | USU 90 – 70 SJSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | USU 82 – 61 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-9 | 5-16 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 3-13 |
| Home | 10-2 | 4-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 0-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 82.4 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#188) | -11.7 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#204) | -2.85 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#216) | -4.80 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#195) | 0.325 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 35.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 83.1% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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