Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
| Money | PFW -115 CLE -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +9 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -7.7 (-16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (+36.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -5.6 (-14.6) | 135.6 (+33.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -1.6 (-10.6) | 137.9 (+31.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -6.0 (-15.0) | 133.9 (+35.1) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PFW 92 – 86 CLE |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PFW 74 – 71 CLE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLE 68 – 57 PFW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CLE 68 – 58 PFW |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CLE 75 – 72 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-15 | 19-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 16-4 |
| Home | 5-6 | 9-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#230) | -7.6 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#126) | -1.27 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#135) | -1.77 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#176) | 0.425 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 35.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 40.3% |
| TOV% | 38.6% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 40.9% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 30.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 56.9% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 37.1% |
Game Analysis
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