Betting Lines
| Spread | HALL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | HALL -165 PROV +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | HALL -11.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HALL -10.2 (-13.2) | 149.2 (+7.8) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HALL -7.0 (-10.0) | 143.7 (+13.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HALL -9.4 (-12.4) | 148.0 (+9.0) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HALL -10.3 (-13.3) | 149.5 (+7.5) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | HALL 87 – 80 PROV |
| Dec 19, 2025 | HALL 72 – 67 PROV |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PROV 69 – 67 HALL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | PROV 91 – 85 HALL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | PROV 67 – 63 HALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HALL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 10-9 | 9-10 |
| Home | 7-4 | 8-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#40) | 3.4 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#54) | 1.36 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#55) | 1.54 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#58) | 0.541 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HALL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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